US presidential election takes on Andy Warhol allusion as Associated Press announces confusing poll results about Clinton
Wednesday, April 30, 2008 at 6:09PM At the moment the US presidential election offers vast potential for imaginative news coverage, with Obama-drama raging over the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, Clinton (finally!) recovering from sniper fire in Bosnia, and McCain going about business as usual as though he hadn’t a care (or a strategist) in the world, and the Associated Press (Apr. 28) declaring ‘Clinton leads McCain by 9 points.’ Problem with that AP headline is the story is stacked and you don’t get down to the nuts and bolts of that poll until the final paragraph. The writer does mention this fairly early on, however: 30 percent of Clinton supporters and 21 percent of Obama supporters said they would vote for McCain in November if their preferred candidate didn't win the nomination.
I confess US citizens are vested in this election. I have read messages and stories declaring the effect Obama has on fans—think Elvis. I have read heavy criticism of Clinton, and some of those comments, if they were a movie, would be completely unrated. MoveOn dot whatever—you know, George Soros’s Clinton-hatin’, Betrayus clan—is running snippets of remarks by McCain in an effort to convince Americans the Arizona senator wants to keep the guns a’blazin’ for the next century or millennium, depending on your imaginative abilities and lack of access to the full text of what McCain said, and more importantly what he implied. I am getting daily emails from various friends who beg me to vote for their preferred candidate even though I only get to vote once.
Ironically, not a single media outlet has talked about a single candidate’s actual voting record (other than the famed McCain-Feingold legislation) and McCain’s statement about $3 million for a grizzly bear study which, according to Townhall’s glossy new magazine (May, ’08) was actually a grizzly bear count. As an avid environmentalist, would somebody please tell me how you spend $3 million to count bears? I’m serious. I’ll count ‘em for half that amount. Long as I can take a shotgun with me.
But the AP story is the latest cherry on top of the sundae. Here’s why. Start with the headline: ‘AP Poll: Clinton leads McCain by 9 points.’ The first 20 or so paragraphs in the story extol Clinton (unusual for media, I know). But it’s the last para that really begs a second look and also begs what the hell the AP editors are doing on their lunch break. I’d like to try some myself. Here it is and you tell me why it’s a surprise a Democrat is ahead in this poll. (Feel free to use the comment form below): The poll, taken April 23-27, questioned 1,001 adults nationally, with a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points. Included were interviews with 457 Democratic voters and people leaning Democratic, with a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.6 points, and 346 Republicans or GOP-leaning voters, with a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 5.3 points.
So in that poll we got 111 more Dems or Dem-leaners than Repubs or Repub-leaners, with I guess 198 undecideds? 198 phantoms? 198 interviewees on drugs? I’m subtracting the total results from the total polled. No one seemed to notice this—not the guys on CNN, or the guys on Fox, or even McCain’s strategists. Was this actually a poll or a work of fiction?
I figure this election is gonna get so crazy Howard Dean might be talkin’ in whispers at the DNC national convention and decide he wants to run himself. I figure Ronald Reagan may pull a Lazarus and show up to claim the GOP nomination, Karl Rove may declare his support for Ron Paul and Dem strategist Bob Beckel may go down on his knees and confess his suggestions to the DNC on how to select a presidential candidate were inspired by a night of very hard partying.
At the moment, the US presidential election coverage feels a little like a scene from a fantasy film, with Mickey Mouse and Darth Vader flashing each other gang signs on a gangplank straight out of 'Pirates of the Caribbean.' Or one of Andy Warhol’s films, depending on your preference and intellect.
And we’re just getting started. Be leery. Very leery. “Fudge.”
[Filed by Kay B. Day; watch the video for the 'fudge' allusion if it just doesn't sink in otherwise.]




Reader Comments (2)
I saw that poll too.
Speculation is often a dangerous thing - but I like to live dangerously, so here goes:
Sen. Obama is in complete and utter metldown mode. Every clip of him is his press conference yesterday followed by a snide reporter going, "So! You think he threw Wright under the bus enough - or does he have to back it up and run him over again!"
It's a nightmare for Obama. He's heading into the latter end of the week where the politico talkshows are analyzing everything the guy has ever said about "the crazy uncle" and they'll do a blow by blow from Friday to Sunday.
His entire chance at the nomination hinges on how he solves this crisis. If he handles it poorly - he's done. If he handles it even in a mediocre way - he'll be okay.
I ran the numbers tonight on what Hillary could actually do to Obama if he fully melts down "Chernobyl" style... the worst case scenario - she picks up 70% of the delegates between now and June - she'll be ahead of Obama in total pledged delegates by like 20 - and if the Super Delegates stay as they are - she'd be ahead of Obama by 39 or so.
That's the best case scenario.
Presuming Barrack doesn't have a complete meltdown - Hillary stands between having a deficit of 60 to 150 delegates.
So I don't see her pulling this out over the pledged delegates.But its possible...
I think the Media is having buyer's remorse - and they're wedded to "it's about hope... nd change... and a better tomorrow," that now when he goes and does something like he did yesterday - they're stuck. The media is notoriously bad at "looking around corners" and I think they feel broadsided by the Obama story. So they're giving Hillary a minor boost in case she actually pulls it off and becomes the nominee.
The poll does not, btw, match the national heads-up in Electoral delegates. It doesn't matter if McCain is down by 9%... if he even is (which that polling looks suspect to me - given sample sizes, margins, and potential push-polling). What matters is DELEGATES. If McCain loses NYC by 9% - that could account for the parity of 9% nation-wide... well that's dandy... but he wasn't going to win NY's delegates anyway - so who cares...
If you look at this website:
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Clinton/Maps/Apr30.html
That gives you a better sense of the situation... and you can see its alot more tenuous...
First of all - I realize Clinton is strong in Florida... but McCain is going to fight hard there - the Republicans have a good organization there - and they already know its a must win...
... I'd take Florida away from Hillary.
Second - new polling suggests that PA may go McCain. It's not incorporated in the chart yet (it will be)... so take away PA.
Looking at those two states being in play - and the reality is - electorally - its a dead heat.
Those of us inside the beltway who have been looking at this map for awhile already know this... we've been studying the deadlock since last June where many of us realized the whole race if it was a "moderate" versus Hillary (most of us looking through the Guiliani lens at that time) realized that Florida, Ohio, and New Mexico are the weak spots...
This poll is really meaningless... people have to understand how President's are really elected - the polling often doesn't show the stratego that would be behind engineering a win by 10%... which btw - the last person who really did that was Ronald Reagan against Mondale...
Bryan, well-put (honored, btw to have your esteemed intellect commenting here!)
When I read the poll mentioned in that article, I was flabbergasted.
I think you're spot on about Florida, but I think it'll lean to GOP because of Central and NE (consider The Villages and the impact on the last election).
I think no matter who the Dem candidate is, this is going to be a tough, possibly tight race. I also think Obama will take Clinton in the DNC battle because of the intra-party DNC politics.
What all that means is us interested observers will have a hell of a good time watching this play out.
But I'm still amazed McCain's peeps didn't call the AP on that poll.
best! Kay