NOAA –2008 season ‘near normal or above normal’ in Atlantic Basin, with first storm to be named ‘Arthur’

(Camp Springs, Md.)—The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration projects the 2008 hurricane season will be near normal or above normal in the Atlantic Basin. NOAA is urging residents in vulnerable areas to be fully prepared for the onset of hurricane season, which begins June 1. Bill Read, director of NOAA’s National Hurricane Center, said, “Our forecasters are ready to track any tropical cyclone, from a depression to a hurricane, which forms in the Atlantic Basin. We urge coastal residents to have a hurricane plan in place before the season begins and NHC will continue to provide the best possible forecast to the public.”

I have experience with 'canes
Read is offering some good advice. The best time to prepare for a storm is when nothing is happening. Stocking extra water, tinned goods, flashlights and batteries and pet supplies should occur before everybody in your community heads to the Winn-Dixie for peanut butter and bread. If you’re on regular medication, don’t let your supplies get low. Last year, Publix offered specials on jugs of water during the season. Another must-have: a weather band radio or at the least, a radio you can run on batteries. Another tip—we live in Florida, so our family has agreed on the safest room to jump into if a tornado approaches. I keep a quilt made by my grandmother so we can cover ourselves with it. That quilt is as heavy as a coat of armor, plus there’s the comfort of having something protective made by my grandmother (truly a saint of a woman). Frankly, I’ll take a hurricane over a tornado any day of the week.

If you purchase a weather band radio, familiarize yourself with it before you need it. NOAA has a helpful web page about the weather band frequencies. Test your radio from time to time. I’ve lived through two major hurricanes, and there’s nothing worse than preparing for a disaster after it’s arrived. I experienced Hurricane Hugo when I was three weeks shy of delivering our second child. All but one local forecaster told us Hugo would miss us. One, Jim Gandy who at the time was a meteorologist for WIS-TV, warned us Hugo could turn. Gandy was the only reason we were anywhere near prepared. My best friend and I subsequently formed the unofficial Jim Gandy fan club with a membership of two. Our house was the only house on our block with electricity the next morning—our neighbors showered and cooked there. The winds were so strong, the chain link fence around our backyard curved outward. The morning after Hugo, our neighborhood looked like a battlefield, but we were in much better shape than many.

What happens when a storm forms?
When a storm forms in the tropics – and even before that stage – NOAA forecasters at the Miami-based National Hurricane Center are in continuous monitoring mode – employing a dense network of satellites, land- and ocean-based sensors and aircraft reconnaissance missions operated by NOAA and its partners. This array of data supplies the information for complex computer modeling and human expertise that serves the basis for the hurricane center’s track and intensity forecasts that extend out five days in advance.
NOAA’s Atlantic hurricane season outlook will be updated on August 7, just prior to what is historically the peak period for hurricane activity. Tropical systems acquire a name – the first of which for 2008 will be Arthur – upon reaching tropical storm strength with sustained winds of at least 39 mph. Tropical storms become hurricanes when winds reach 74 mph, and become major hurricanes when winds reach 111 mph.

Bottom line on the 2008 NOAA forecast: there’s no way to tell if we’ll get the big one, but it makes sense to be as prepared as possible if we do. I don’t know about you, but I don’t want to wait on the federal government to bring me water if there’s anything I possibly can do for myself.

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(Filed by Kay B. Day; partial text and the graphic chart courtesy of NOAA.)

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