Florida governor’s race a stew of November risk and ‘poli-flu’
Wednesday, June 16, 2010 at 3:54PM Analysis by Kay B. Day
The feeling was palpable in the banquet room at San Jose Country Club in Jacksonville (Fla.) where the Republican Women’s Club of Duval County met on Thursday. 
Rick Scott, candidate for governor in the Florida GOP primary, spoke to GOP women in Jacksonville on June 10. [Photo by Kay B. Day]Rick Scott, gubernatorial candidate opposing Attorney General Bill McCollum in the GOP Primary, spoke to some of the most influential Republican women in Florida. In attendance were Cindy Graves, organizer extraordinaire who's president of the Florida Federation of Republican Women, Peret Pass, indefatigable dynamo who has organized the city’s young Republicans into a force to be reckoned with, past FFRW chairs and numerous entrepreneurs, public officials, homemakers and men and women from all walks of life. The place was packed.
Scott was attempting to woo the group with his message, knowing there had to be a lot of support for McCollum in the room. What was that palpable feeling?
If you scanned the faces in the audience, you could see approval on some and neutrality on others. Still others came close to a sneer. That palpable feeling? Uncertainty and possible discomfort over what might be called ‘November risk.’
THE RICK SCOTT CONUNDRUM
The day of his meet and greet, Scott had reason to feel positive. Rasmussen had just released a report showing he was the frontrunner, beating both McCollum and Democrat candidate Alex Sink in the polls. Quinnipiac also had Scott running ahead of McCollum.
Were the polls a reflection of the anti-incumbent bias pundits love to cite? Or perhaps whiplash against negative ads aired against Scott? Or maybe even confusion over McCollum’s less conspicuous campaign?
Florida attorney general Bill McCollum who is running for governor in the GOP primary recovered more than $200 million in Medicaid fraud. [Screen snip from McCollum campaign site.]Although McCollum technically isn’t the incumbent, he’s a known political brand. Many in that category suffer from what might be called ‘poli-flu’ because of general dissatisfaction on Main Street.
Like the status descriptive on Facebook pages sometimes says, it’s complicated.
The Miami Herald said one group, the Alliance for America’s Future, had spent $1.85 million already, attacking Scott over penalties levied against HCA for alleged Medicare fraud. Scott had been CEO there when the investigation was launched though the case dated to prior to Scott's time. Some of the fraudulent claims were whistleblower cases—said whistleblower(s) benefited by receiving a share of the proceeds.
Thing is, Scott readily admitted he did the deed. He took responsibility.
Other thing is that was his only alternative, given the documentation. If your hand is in the cookie jar when Mom walks in the room, there’s not much point denying it.
Another thing is voters have heard the anti-Scott ads so often it’s easy to tune them out.
Big thing is McCollum has a record of his own on Medicaid fraud. He’s recovered more than $200 million for the nation’s fourth largest state where a whopping 14 percent of the population is on Medicaid. However, that messaging tends to submerge beneath the surface of attack ads.
The US Report talked to many people at the Jacksonville event and to others in the general GOP fold. While enthusiasm for Scott appeared to be there, much of it was cautious.
Ironically there was a great deal of admiration for the job McCollum has done as Florida’s attorney general. But at least half a dozen people expressed frustration over his campaign.
One supporter likened it to the McCain Presidential campaign—a mess, a communications disaster, a haphazard approach that guaranteed the GOP loss in 2008. Many conservatives believe the GOP handed President Barack Obama an easy victory.
Another woman wasn’t so kind. She said McCollum had an ‘entitlement’ mentality—he basically expected to win because he has the backing of the powers that be.
But a conservative who wasn’t at the meeting had this to say on Wednesday: “To me Rick Scott seems like an opportunist trying to grab onto to the TEA PARTY coat-tails and ride that into office.”
Still another conservative said by phone, “What happens if Scott wins and the Democrats go after him in November?”
Thus far those who’ve spoken to TUSR both at the meeting and elsewhere appear 50-50 on the candidates, but that’s admittedly an informal study based on anecdotal evidence.
NOVEMBER RISK
Meanwhile back at the blog farm, a former writer for a left of center newspaper said he received an email message on Monday from a prominent Tampa-area Republican: “Any truth to the persistant [sic] rumor that McCollum will drop back to AG race? Been a lot of talk. Have you heard this?"
The McCollum campaign heard about it. A spokesperson told TUSR on Wednesday there’s no truth whatsoever to the rumor. McCollum definitely will run for governor. That rumor, by the way, is suspect, working on behalf of McCollum’s opposition. It's the old 'light a fire and run' political tactic.
As conservatives weigh both candidates’ abilities, there are a variety of forces in play. Scott has a lot of money and he’s put it to good use. He’s ‘fessed up on the fraud issue and promised to be tough on matters like illegal immigration (a definite flashpoint with voters from both major parties), and anti-business regulations and he’s focusing on job growth.
“We can’t keep electing career politicians,” he told the Jacksonville group.
On the other hand, McCollum may be a “career politician,” but he’s earned kudos for efforts on cybercrime against children, recouping Medicaid fraud and leading the charge against Obamacare because of the mandate. He was the first to write Obama about BP setting up an escrow account for Florida.
Both candidates have a presence on the Web, but Scott is more attuned to the blogosphere and social media. At Facebook he has 26,438 fans who “like” his page.
McCollum, however, has 4,855 “friends” who have either requested that status or confirmed it as opposed to clicking a thumbs up for “likes.”
Both candidates have been covered by indie bloggers at RedState, one for Scott and the other for McCollum. And even the guru of RedState, Erick Erickson has mentioned Scott in a column, although not from a candidate advocacy standpoint but as a healthcare referential.
MAIN STREET PERSPECTIVE
Main Street seems perplexed, based on various conversations. Do you go for a known quantity, a candidate who has done good things for the state but who obviously has the backing and ear of powers-that-be and may experience incumbent-like angst?
Or do you go for the outsider who appears to be tapping into the issues many on Main Street are concerned about and who is obviously very cyber-savvy?
And whatever Republicans decide, how do you gauge November risk? It’s one thing for two Republicans to launch attack ads, but what happens if the Democrat nominee goes beyond the pale on Scott’s background? Obversely, what happens if McCollum can’t swing a majority vote to triumph over the Democrat?
The one thing Republicans agree on when it comes to the governor’s race is there’s a lot at stake. Florida’s unemployment rate, the Gulf oil spill, the challenge of addressing the thousands of undocumented aliens in the state because of Florida’s de facto sanctuary approach—there’s a long list of challenges most conservatives believe the frontrunner Democrat would not be able to meet.
But in the minds of many there appears to be confusion over selecting the best candidate to lead the GOP to victory. November risk is in the air despite a current heat wave, and poli-flu appears to be striking candidates across the land, not only for the GOP but for the Dem candidates as well.
Reader Comments (2)
Both tycoons, Scott and Greene, are posing a danger to the allegedly 'establishment' candidates. It will be interesting to see if, and how, the two parties embrace these gentleman should they achieve primary victories.
One thing's for sure. Florida has some interesting elections and we surely have some great drama! You can't say we are boring. best! Kay