Is Florida’s early primary a positive or a negative for the GOP?
Sunday, October 2, 2011 at 1:40PM 
I’m resigned to the decision the Presidential Preference Primary Date Selection Committee made to move Florida’s presidential primary to Jan. 31. However, I would have preferred a final decision via a broader consensus rather than a government-appointed committee.
I’ve read articles explaining why this is a good thing and others explaining why it may not be. Like all risks, the decision to bump the primary can go either way. The question is whether it will be a positive or a negative for the GOP as a whole.
Some candidates will benefit. Those that are at the top of the polls can capitalize on their strengths.
Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney has solid support among the establishment. A sizable portion of the GOP base supported Romney in 2008. He was my favorite candidate then and I voted for him in our primary.
Texas Gov. Rick Perry may not be the great debater, but he certainly resonates with Republicans whose primary interest is jobs. You can’t deny Perry’s abilities as a governor regardless of your party affiliation. If Perry was running as a Democrat, he’d be painted as a superhero.
Businessman Herman Cain is on the rise. Cain is the only candidate thus far to use repeat messaging to brand his policy. Show me a politics junkie who doesn’t know what 9-9-9 is and I’ll show you a waffle with the Virgin Mary’s 4-color image on it. Cain also connects well with Main Street—his rise from modest roots echoes the life path many of us took.
Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich may benefit from the advanced date because of all the candidates, no one comes close to Gingrich in a debate. I've often said I'd pay money to watch him debate President Barack Obama. Gingrich's challenge is money, and he will have to seriously ramp up fundraising and messaging.
Rep. Ron Paul’s supporters will continue to promote him and he has an ability to connect with youth that some other GOP candidates lack. It would, however, be very difficult for Paul to rise beyond the steady numbers he always commands because of his positions on Israel and on interventions in countries where terrorism is harbored or nurtured. Paul has a problem beyond his control. His supporters often alienate others and make Paul seem more radical than his actions in Congress suggest.
A Florida victory for any candidate may one-up his campaign—momentum is the key word committeemen who voted for the early date are using. Committeemen believe Florida will gain momentum as a major influencer in determining the eventual nominee.
We Floridians have experience with the early primary, and it sparks memories of how a January date nudged us towards the autumn of our discontent in 2008.
I have read comments on social media claiming the way 2008 worked out was a victory for Florida. I cannot follow the logic in that, considering the candidate we ended up with and the results on Election Day. We were doomed to fail and at times I wondered if we actually wanted to.
Florida does risk losing the very momentum we hope to gain. There will be a long campaign season and primaries in other early states will now be pushed ahead even more radically.
New Republican National Committee rules could produce unexpected outcomes, as an analysis in The St. Petersburg Times notes:
New RNC rules, in addition to cutting delegates from states that ignore the sanctioned schedule, dictate that any state holding elections before April will award delegates proportionally, instead of to the popular vote winner. In Florida's case, the bulk of the 48 delegates will be awarded by congressional district, so a candidate winning eight of Florida's 25 districts could wind up with nearly as many delegates as a candidate winning 10 districts.
Whether Florida’s early primary decision will work for the best interests of the GOP in other states is not guaranteed, although that is what we will work towards.
Jacksonville will host a CNN-Republican Party of Florida debate the week of the Primary. Another debate will be held in Tampa on the eve of the Primary. Those two events alone will give Florida momentum. The debates so close to the primary will give candidates who debate well an edge.
Hopefully the influence of Florida’s early primary will be sustained over the long months beyond January 31. At this point that cannot be guaranteed.
(Commentary by Kay B. Day/Oct. 2, 2011)