For 2012 Polly wants a Perry, on bio index score anyway

Gov. Perry announced Loser Pays legislation in May. Perry signed the legislation to counter frivolous lawsuits. (Screen snip from video at state of Texas, Governor)Forecasting models come in all shapes and sizes, and one of the more intriguing models is PollyBio. PollyBio is part of a larger model, PollyVote. Developed by Andreas Graefe and Scott Armstrong, both of whom are associated with respected academic institutions, the Polly website said the bio model is based on “59 biographical cues…expected to have an impact” on a candidate’s chances.

Even though Texas governor Rick Perry hasn’t formally declared his candidacy for the GOP nomination yet, PollyBio most definitely liked the governor.

PollyBio selected Perry as the only Republican who could beat President Barack Obama in 2012.

The model forecast a slim victory for unofficial candidate Perry—one point.

The two declared candidates who came closest to victory were former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney and former Minnesota governor Tim Pawlenty. Both those able governors scored within 3 points of Obama.

The model might sound quirky, but the PollyBio web page shows credible results, as stated on the website: “Armstrong and Graefe tested their model for the 29 U.S. Presidential Elections from 1896 to 2008. The model failed only two times. For the remaining 27 elections, the model correctly predicted the winner. This record of 93% correct predictions compares favorably to other statistical models as well as to polls and prediction markets.”

On the Polly website the logo is the image of a green parrot.

There’s even an interactive PollyBio feature letting you complete a simple questionnaire that determines your chances of beating Obama. Questions cover items like whether you’ve served in the military, authored a book or divorced your spouse.

Perry might not be ready to commit at present, but media, like Polly, appears very interested in the governor who definitely has a commanding presence. Pundits are abuzz at The New York Times, Commentary and numerous other high profile publications.

The NYT and some other progressive publications appear obsessed over the fact that Perry, like our last Republican president, is from Texas. The paper seems to think that’s a problem.

Apparently the NYT pundits haven’t stopped to consider Obama’s home city of Chicago. If we start comparing Obama to his fellow Democrats like former Gov. Rod Blagojevich—well, you can see where that might go.

The Houston Chronicle said Polly’s two misses were the election of Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton. Otherwise, the model was accurate. Perry may not be official yet, but Polly certainly likes him.

Perry is slated to speak to influential conservatives at the annual Red State Gathering to be held this year in Charleston, SC, August 12-14.

 (Analysis by Kay B. Day/July 6, 2011)

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Comments

[Jason]

Great post!

[Kay B. Day]

Jason, thanks. The results the model ran are pretty impressive I have to admit.

You can have some fun with that interactive post. I did it and came within two points of O. Will I run for prez? LOL. best, Kay