Quinnipiac shows Mitt leads, but supporters more committed to Newt

Could anything be crazier than the Florida GOP Presidential Primary? In a single week, we’ve seen supporters of Gov. Mitt Romney showing up at events for former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich and the Romney campaign saying no on a takedown notice sent by NBC news regarding an ad.

The Romney camp doesn’t have to worry about any fines they might have to pay; it’s a given the governor has the campaign bucks. The controversial ad, one of an avalanche of attack ads on Gingrich, shows the Speaker when he was reprimanded by Congress. The ad of course doesn't show the announcements from media when Gingrich was cleared.

A new Quinnipiac poll shows Romney leading Gingrich. There’s an intriguing item in the poll, however, that shows the race is still fluid.

Aside from the act there’s a +/- 4.1 percentage points margin of error, there’s also a commitment factor.

Asked if their mind was mind up about their candidate, 67 percent of the 580 likely Republican Primary voters said yes; 32 percent said they might change their minds.

However, what’s interesting is the level of commitment to their candidate.

Romney supporters who had their mind made up totaled 67 percent; 32 percent said they might change their minds.

Gingrich supporters who had their mind made up totaled 70 percent, while only 29 percent said they might change their minds.

Turnout will be the decisive factor in whoever wins the race.

Quinnipiac is one of many different polling companies.  A Fordham University analysis of the most successful polls didn’t have Quinnipiac in the top 23 most accurate. Rasmussen and Pew were the top two most accurate—The Houston Chronicle has the list.

Romney’s war chest is legendary. Open Secrets lists his top contributors as Goldman Sachs, Credit Suisse Group  and Morgan Stanley—no big surprise considering Romney’s background in finance.

Gingrich’s top contributor is a Tennessee paperboard company.

(Analysis by Kay B. Day/Jan. 28, 2012)