A Main Street view of unsurprising Romney-Santorum outcome in Iowa

Screen snip of portion of full page ad former Speaker Gingrich published in New Hampshire's most widely circulated newspaper 'The Union Leader'. (Newt Gingrich campaign)Pundits appear surprised at former Sen. Rick Santorum’s (Penn.) de facto tie with former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney in Iowa. I can’t tell you how many times I’ve heard or read ‘Santorum Surge.’

Although former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich is still the overall frontrunner according to averages at Real Clear Politics, Romney continues to enjoy the implied status of presumed nominee among legacy media.

Current averages at RCP show national rankings as Gingrich with 27.2 percent, Romney with 24.8, Paul with 12.6, Perry with 6.4, Bachmann with 6.2 and Santorum with 4.2.

Gingrich finished fourth in Iowa, perhaps affected by attack ads launched by an organization called Restore our Future. The pro-Romney organization has a one page website with no other information listed and is registered in Domains by Proxy.  Restore our Future’s ad told half truths taken out of context about Gingrich, largely criticizing him for activities when he was in the private sector, not in the public sector. The attack commercial feels more like a Democrat product than a Republican product.

Romney’s 2012 Iowa victory by a margin of 8 votes certainly pleased his supporters but Main Street has cause for concern. According to RCP data, Romney finished second in Iowa with 26.7 percent of the vote in 2008. Thus his 2012 victory at 24.6 percent actually represented a decrease in support.

Third place Iowa finisher Rep. Ron Paul (Texas) had good reasons to celebrate. In 2008 RCP showed Paul garnered 7.3 percent of the votes cast in Iowa. In 2012 Paul earned 21.4 percent of the vote—that is a sizable gain.

Republicans still have not rallied collectively behind a candidate.

Erick Erickson at Red State pointed out something worth noting:

For starters, the media would have you believe that the 123,000 people who turned out for the Hawkeye Caucii was a record. This is simply not true except superficially. If you take out the non-Republicans who came into the caucuses last night for Ron Paul, the Republican turnout was less than 2008 — even considering the ratio of independents to Republicans who turned out in 2008.

If Erickson is correct, his conclusion correlates to something I’ve said. I believe GOP turnout will be impacted by our choice of nominee. If we select a candidate who cannot unite the Party, we will lose the General Election. People will not turn out if the nominee's policy and style mirror Obama's.

Gingrich was upbeat after the Iowa results were announced, telling his supporters the election isn’t “just about beating Obama—it’s about what we need to do to get the country back on the right track.” Gingrich congratulated Santorum and Paul on their performances, but said Paul’s views on foreign policy are “stunningly dangerous.”

At the moment fifth place Iowa finisher Texas Gov. Rick Perry is said to be reassessing his campaign. Perry’s fall from media grace has been a sore disappointment to many of us who respect his solid record as governor and his dedication to government reform principles as well as tax code reform. A key factor in Perry’s first stumble was Rep. Michele Bachmann (Minn.) who spun vaccine stories far beyond reasonable limits in a successful effort to derail Perry.

Moe Lane who also blogs at Red State, wrote at his own blog:

“Bachmann… it’s over, Rep. Bachmann. I’m sorry. Time to start on your re-election campaign for Congress.”

As Iowa folds up the GOP tents, the Obama campaign remains on the ground there in hopes of holding the state the liberal Democrat carried in the 2008 General Election.

All GOP eyes now turn to New Hampshire's January 10 Primary, although there aren’t any likely surprises coming from a tiny state that will probably opt for the moderate Romney.

All GOP eyes should be on South Carolina because that state will be a key factor in determining the GOP nominee in 2012, far more important than Iowa or New Hampshire. The real action begins in Carolina on January 16 with the country’s ‘First in the South’ Presidential Debate in Myrtle Beach. On Saturday, Jan. 21, Carolina holds the Primary.

SC GOP Chair Chad Connelly summed up his state’s role in selecting the GOP nominee. “South Carolina Republicans pick presidents.”

(Analysis by Kay B. Day/Jan. 4, 2012)