GOP focused on New Hampshire; real prizes lie in Dixie

For three decades, the winner of the Republican Primary in South Carolina has gone on to win the nomination.Who knew so many Republican candidates would stay in the race for the 2012 nomination this long? I’d become so accustomed to a full stage at these debates that I was actually surprised when Rep. Michele Bachmann suspended her campaign.

I was positively shocked when media first reported Texas Gov. Rick Perry was returning to his home state—some bloggers claimed he was suspending his campaign. The claim about Perry was false; Perry is understandably staying the course.

At this point, the only official event in the candidate selection process has been the Iowa caucuses.

New Hampshire has a mixed record on actually picking the nominee.

Over the last three decades, for instance, the Granite State's Primary winner ended up as the GOP nominee 8 times. There were a couple of winners, however, who didn’t make it to the nomination. In 1996, Pat Buchanan won New Hampshire. In 2000 Sen. John McCain (Ariz.) won.

South Carolina has a solid record for the same time period, with that state’s winner ending up as GOP nominee in every election.

Currently the airwaves are dominated by negative content mainly directed at former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich. Much has been made of former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum’s Iowa success, an 8-vote difference between his candidacy and that of establishment favorite, former Massachusetts Governor Romney.

In 2008 former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee won the Iowa caucuses.

Gingrich was angry after a merciless barrage of attack ads aired ahead of Iowa. The ads were reportedly launched by a pro-Romney group.  The attacks mirror those aimed at other candidates like Herman Cain and Perry.

Somewhere in the mix, former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman continued to campaign even as he dealt with smear ads—these ads really stooped low, attacking Huntsman for adopting his daughter—reportedly from supporters of Texas Representative Ron Paul.

As the primary process has played out, the GOP candidates have been vetted with tenacity parents can identify with if there’s ever been a case of head lice in their child’s school.

Meanwhile US President Barack Obama has never been vetted and he has transgressed the US Constitution numerous times, with his latest in-your-face assault being presidential appointments made illegally because the Senate is still in session as you can see on the Senate website.

In 2007 Slate ran an article worth reading about primaries, noting that primaries gained real momentum after the end of World War II. Before that, things were different:

Just when primaries seemed like the wave of the future, they receded from view. One general reason was the shrinking appetite after World War I for reform of any sort. More concretely, primaries proved to be costly, and voters weren't turning out en masse. As a result, candidates didn't treat primaries as necessary stops on the road to the White House. In the 1910s and 1920s, most successful aspirants mapped out other routes to the nomination. In 1920, the Republicans, deadlocked at their convention, chose Warren Harding of Ohio, who hadn't entered any primaries at all. On the Democratic side, so few primaries had lured the top candidates that the number of uncommitted delegates dwarfed the number pledged to any individual. With primaries seeming irrelevant, only one state, Alabama, enacted a new primary law between 1917 and 1935. Eight states actually abandoned theirs.

As Republicans continue the process of selecting an opponent for Obama, it’s useful to bear in mind that Obama is the real challenge. It’s understandable that Republican candidates wage high energy battles but it is not acceptable that Republicans have resorted to tactics evidenced by some commercials run against Gingrich, Perry and Huntsman.

As the Granite State gears up to welcome participants in the GOP Primary, the real prizes await in Dixie. South Carolina’s Primary will be a major factor in determining our nominee—that is the one absolute in this whole process. Beyond that Primary lies the Sunshine State contest. The geographic area we call Dixie will be a key determinant regardless of the outcome in New Hampshire.

(Op Ed by Kay B. Day/Jan. 6, 2012)