AP ‘Advantage Obama’ could be ‘Advantage Romney’—look to Colorado model
Monday, October 29, 2012 at 2:22PM There’s one question every pundit hedges. Who will win the U.S. presidency on Nov. 6?
The Associated Press says the race for electoral votes is “Advantage Obama.” The AP has seen the race as advantage-Obama for quite some time, even when Republican nominee Gov. Mitt Romney was ahead in electoral votes on Oct. 18.
If reality counted, the AP article could just as easily be titled 'Advantage Romney' for a number of reasons including an impressive model developed at the University of Colorado.
Some pundits are conceding Ohio to President Barack Obama. I’d say that’s premature, considering Rasmussen's latest Ohio poll has Romney ahead by 2 points as of Oct. 29.
A political science professor at Fordham University did a study on the accuracy of polls; Rasmussen came out on top.
Polls were widely touted as a campaign boon to Obama in 2008, with virtually no media tagging coverage of polls as being within the margin of error even if there wasn’t a large lead. Media created an impression Obama was unbeatable, even during the Democrat Primary where Obama eventually gave then-Sen. Hillary Clinton a serious whipping.
Ironically, two years later, a leading Democrat blogger admitted his own polls were “likely bunk.” They’d been averaged with other polls during the 2008 campaigns.
The AP posits that Obama has already locked Ohio, Wisconsin and Iowa.
However, Real Clear Politics lists those states as tossups, based on averages of polls.
Romney is ahead in the Real Clear Politics National average.
Reuters has an analysis that isn’t quite as Obama-oriented as that of the AP.
Neither the AP nor Reuters had Rasmussen’s latest poll on Ohio when their analyses were published. As noted above, that poll found Romney ahead by 2 percent.
Rasmussen has Romney ahead by 4 percent in a swing state tracking poll.
As the race has progressed since both party conventions late in the summer, media have delivered benevolent coverage to the president, a sharp contrast to coverage given President George W. Bush and even President Bill Clinton during their reelection bids. Media coverage of Obama has definitely been more benevolent than that levied on Romney.
For instance, most media haven’t covered the president’s mismanagement during the attacks on the U.S. Consulate in Benghazi where 4 Americans died.
Perhaps more interesting than any media analysis is a recent projection based on a forecasting model at the University of Colorado.
Media didn’t tout the projection as they might have.
A summary at the university website noted this:
Their model correctly predicted all elections since 1980, including two years when independent candidates ran strongly, 1980 and 1992. It also correctly predicted the outcome in 2000, when Al Gore received the most popular vote but George W. Bush won the election.
That’s an impressive record.
The Colorado University model, by the way, projects a Romney win. Advantage: Romney.
Ed. note: If you’re new to the site, I’ll repeat that I’m supporting Romney for president. One reason among many: I like the prospect of having more money in my pocket.
(Commentary by Kay B. Day/Oct. 29, 2012)
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