Maine GOP Caucus bubbles along with most results expected Feb. 11

Update, Feb. 11 at 7:30 p.m.: Initial results of the Maine Straw Poll are in. See the latest post, Romney squeaks by Paul...

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In late January, Maine Republicans began making their choice for a Republican nominee to face President Barack Obama.

Saturday, Feb. 11, is the final day for voting in most counties. The Maine GOP said Washington County has been postponed until Feb. 18, however. The Maine Republican Party website provides full details about that.

As best I can tell, this caucus works like others that are non-binding—people select their presidential preference in what amounts to a straw poll. There’s a lengthy explanation of the process on the Maine GOP page linked above.

The Atlantic shed some light on what amounts to a complex situation for a small state like Maine:

“But that's not the end of the weirdness. The Maine caucuses, like the Minnesota caucuses earlier this week, are nonbinding. Attendees won't actually select delegates until the state nominating convention; those delegates will in turn choose the state's 24 delegates to the Republican National Convention in August, who will give their votes to one candidate or another. So when the Maine GOP hosts an event Saturday evening to announce caucus results, what will be revealed is the results of a straw poll of attendees.”

A voter can even challenge another voter—here’s a bit of strange ‘Maine-ia’ from the party website:

“An enrolled voter of a municipality may challenge the right of another to vote at a municipal caucus. The person challenged may vote at the caucus after he has taken the following oath administered by the chairman of the caucus.

Oath. ‘I, (name of challenged person), swear that I am a registered and enrolled voter in this voting district, that I am a member of the party holding this caucus, and that I have not been enrolled in any other party in this municipality within the last 15 days.’"

The blogosphere is abuzz about a potential win for Rep. Ron Paul (R-Texas) as well as the necessity for former Mass. Gov. Mitt Romney to break his losing streak.

The Atlantic said Maine has more delegates than New Hampshire but turnout is usually smaller than that in the Granite State.

Frankly, considering the quirky method Maine uses to arrive at a decision on their preferred nominee, I can see why people might just decide to settle for whatever candidate the core activists in the party select, or alternatively for whatever candidate can get people up off the couch.

Another straw poll is being held at the Conservative Political Action Committee conference in Washington, D. C. The results of that poll should be available in early evening on Feb. 11.

On Feb. 28, Arizona and Michigan hold their Primary. That will be much easier to interpret than these caucuses.

Bottom line: Maine’s caucus results will deliver air-time and pixels, popularly known as momentum, for Paul or Romney. I’d wager Romney needs a good day there more than Paul does.

Regardless of what happens in the Pine Tree State, Republicans are still a long way from hearing the fat lady sing a victory aria for the eventual nominee.

(Commentary by Kay B. Day/Feb. 11, 2012)