Romney counts on Nevada, but Newt increased turnout in Florida

Real Clear Politics graph showed Obama trounced Sen. John McCain in Nevada in 2008. (Screen snip from chart)
Nevadans head to their precincts on Saturday for their ‘First in the West’ presidential caucus.

The process Nevadans apply is a bit different and more complicated than a primary, as the state GOP explains:

“The caucus will begin by electing a caucus chair and secretary. These two people will be in charge of running the precinct caucus. Generally the local county volunteers that called the meeting to order are elected by voice vote. After that, there will be an election of delegates and alternate delegates from your precinct caucus to the County Convention in March. Delegates have the right to vote at the County Convention. And each delegate has an alternate delegate who will vote in their place in case they are unable to attend the County Convention.”

That’s a glimpse at a complex process for the caucus, but the Feb. 5 preference is the only voice Nevada Republicans will get in determining who wins their state for the right to challenge President Barack Obama in the General Election in November.

Most expect Mitt Romney to win there. Although Nevada  gave Obama a 12.4 pt. spread in the 2008 General Election, Romney can rely on a very active bloc of fellow members of the Church of Latter Day Saints, according to Townhall:

“Mitt Romney’s growing popularity in Nevada is partly because Mormons overwhelmingly favor his candidacy. Though members of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints only make up 8 percent of the state’s total population, one-quarter of those who cast ballots in the 2008 presidential primary were Mormon. And, according to the survey, 85.5 percent this year plan to caucus for the former governor. “

A look back at Florida, however, should give Romney’s campaign concern. They have some work to do in the Sunshine State if he should get the GOP nomination. The Washington Post said:

“In Florida, where Romney grabbed a commanding 46 percent of the vote this week, overall turnout was down significantly from four years ago. A county-by-county look at the Florida numbers shows that turnout was up from four years ago in counties where rival Newt Gingrich did well and down in counties where Romney dominated, according to Michael McDonald, a professor at George Mason University who runs the United States Elections Project to track election data.”

Romney’s most viable challenger, Gingrich, has vowed to stay in the race.

Romney has had some missteps in recent days that aggravate a divide between his policies and the principles fiscal conservatives support. For instance, the governor stated he believed in automatic minimum wage hikes indexed to inflation. In the scheme of things, that position is directly opposite to fiscal conservatism. Romney refused to walk back on the statement, instead, repeating his support to the Associated Press.

Is the Republican Party aiming for independent votes and dismissing or taking for granted conservative votes? If that’s the case, Obama will enjoy additional margins of strength come November.

In Florida the Romney campaign ran thousands of attack ads; at least one made completely false claims. That tactic will not work in the General Election against Obama's sizable war chest.

As a Republican, I was also concerned about attack ads against Gingrich regarding his reprimand when he was Speaker of the US House. The ad did not disclose Gingrich was cleared on tax charges. Apparently, the Romney camp did not realize those attack ads harm the party overall.

At the moment, generic congressional preference polls show Republicans trailing Democrats, a reversal from previous polls.

(Commentary by Kay B. Day/Feb. 3, 2012)