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U.S. News and Commentary



Tuesday
Apr172012

Polls clash on Obama-Romney, but top pollster has Romney ahead

Rasmussen currently has Gov. Mitt Romney ahead of President Barack Obama by 3 points. (Photo: Mitt Romney campaign) In 2008 there’s no doubt polls were used to help boost Democrats’ chances in the General Election. Are Dems and allied media pimping polls ahead of November, 2012?

Some of those 2008 polls were questionable.

I’ve often pointed out the founder of Daily Kos finally admitted—after helping to elect President Barack Obama—his polls were “likely bunk” and he was suing the company he hired. If Kos ran a conservative site, he’d never live down that admission, but Kos is a Leftist, so he got a pass.

Last night’s final local news broadcast in the NE Florida area mentioned a new CNN/ORC poll suggesting President Barack Obama has a 9 point lead over former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney.  Shocking, right?

Consider the unpopular policies Obama and the Democrats pursue—those “skyrocketing” electric bills in your mail each month, for example. Numerous scandals—Solyndra, Fast and Furious, GSA’s nearly million dollar debauchery at taxpayer expense. Admittedly allied media didn’t’ cover these scandals as aggressively as they would’ve if Obama was a Republican, but still, people aren’t stupid. We know what’s going on. We just had Secret Service agents allegedly get into cat fights with prostitutes in Cartagena—some call that the ‘HO-tel’ scandal. Don’t even get me started on higher premiums for health insurance after Obama promised that 2,000+ page bill Dems didn’t read but passed would lower our premiums. Right.

I took a look at the CNN poll cross tabs. I couldn’t find any breakdown on the number of Democrats and Republicans polled—that breakdown is commonly included in most political polls or sometimes implied by questions related to partisan issues like taxes.

When I checked my Twitter feed this morning, there were links to a couple columns about that poll. Ed Morrissey at Hot Air also took issue with the CNN poll. Obviously something is remiss. Will CNN address the matter? Probably not.

Bear in mind polls are a snapshot of opinion given in a narrow window. At the moment, Real Clear Politics poll averages show a very close race that would be even closer if two polls claiming a large margin for Obama weren’t included—the recent CNN poll and a Washington Post poll.

Contradicting some of these media polls is a Rasmussen poll taken April 13-15—Romney is up in that poll by a spread of +3.

Did you ever wonder how accurate polls are when compared to the outcome of elections?

There’s an interesting chart done by a professor of political science at Fordham University. Dr. Costas Panagopoulos, Ph.D. analyzed polls from 23 organizations after the November 4, 2008 election.

Rasmussen had the highest accuracy rating. Only Pew polled on the same level.

(Commentary by Kay B. Day/April 17, 2012)

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