Crist the juggler—Seminole compact, US Senate seat, GOP grassroots angst

by Kay B. Day

Roger Stone, shown here with President Ronald Reagan, is a political legend.This article is based on emails and phone conversations with political expert Roger Stone who has an uncanny knack for predictions. Maybe it’s the zen inherent in Miami’s ambience. Stone remarks on issues Gov. Charlie Crist has been juggling—the compact on gaming rights with the Seminole Indian tribe, the appointment of George LeMieux as interim US senator and the “big tent” GOP strategists claim the Party offers.

At the moment, the state of Florida has billions of dollars riding on the Seminole tribal gaming rights and the state legislature. We’ve done this before. In 2007 Gov. Charlie Crist (R) signed an agreement with the tribe. The Florida Supreme Court struck it down because the legislature hadn’t approved it.

With the new compact, Crist is projecting a $6.8 billion return for the revenue-strapped Sunshine State over a 20-year period. Most of the revenue will go to education. The state and the tribe both stand to profit, but media, legislators and others are raising questions about what the state is conceding.

Roger Stone acknowledged the compact confers “extraordinary rights” on the Seminoles. One stipulation creates a de facto monopoly for the Seminoles. “And expansion of the lottery to video terminals [outside tribal auspices] would be prevented,” Stone said. Non-tribal racetracks and other entities would be left out in the cold.

Public comments from various newspaper websites suggest Main Street Floridians see no reason for a monopoly on any gambling. Some commenters at the Sun-Sentinel [Ft. Lauderdale] are frustrated that places like Miami can’t capitalize on gaming like Las Vegas. With Miami’s beaches, nightlife and amenities, expanded gaming could bring a tourism boost in a state long known for leisure revenue. The Miami Herald said on Monday that under the proposed compact, cities like Jacksonville would not be able to bring in casino games even if the legislature and voters approved it. Senate president Jeff Atwater suggested a compromise—give the tribe a monopoly within 100 miles of its casinos. The tribe rejected that.

The paper pointed to several issues in the compact. Blackjack and other banked card games would be legal at all 7 casinos, the Dept. of Revenue would oversee the operations instead of the state Division of Pari-Mutuel Wagering, and the Seminoles would hold a monopoly on all slots outside Miami-Dade and Broward if gaming expands to allow horse and dog tracks outside South Florida to have video lottery terminals or Vegas type slots. According to Stone, the result of the compact means gaming can't be expanded outside Dade and Broward, even by vote of the people with voiding the Seminoles' obligation to pay the state. "Thus," said Stone, "the compact guarantees no future competition for the Seminoles."

FLORIDA HAS MUCH AT STAKE WITH SEMINOLE COMPACT
There’s a lot at stake, with Crist telling CBS 12 TV (West Palm Beach) if Florida doesn’t seal the deal, the federal government will let the Seminoles do it and Florida might not “get a dime…”

But Stone points out, “Florida receives one of the lowest revenue rates of all states where Indians operate slot machines. The state could’ve had a better deal.” He also sees a legal pitfall. “An agreement claiming the state will never legalize new gambling outside the compact can only be done by constitutional amendment.”

Attorney General Bill McCollum also raised questions. Technically until the compact is approved, McCollum told CBS 12, “[T]he Seminoles are operating cards games at their casinos in violation of state law.” McCollum is seeking the 2010 Republican nomination for governor.

The Seminole deal is admittedly complicated. The tribe basically operates a parallel government—a sovereign nation within the US, yet eligible for federal subsidies. Proponents echo Crist’s concern about losing revenue. But politically, there’s leverage. For instance, voters could push for an amendment to the state constitution. “The public likes Indian gaming,” Stone said, “but I don’t think voters understand what has been gained or lost.”

As details for the compact were finalized, Crist had something else on his mind—an interim replacement for retiring senator Mel Martinez’s seat. Crist tapped George LeMieux—the two are longtime political partners although LeMieux has never held public office. The Buzz blog at The St. Petersburg Times noted, “Crist could face criticism for appointing a political insider who has never held elective office, and a man who strongly encouraged Crist to negotiate a deal that expanded gambling on Seminole Indian reservations. As Washington insiders know, LeMieux was instrumental in Crist's decision to avoid appearing with President Bush on Election Eve 2006 in Pensacola…”

The blog also pointed out, “The choice is not a major surprise, and it will focus new questions about LeMieux's advocacy on issues such as gambling and his law firm's legal work for the state.”

Stone said LeMieux was a chief negotiator for Crist on the Seminole compact.

Stone cited a landmark case during the 1990s, the Seminole Tribe vs. the state of Florida.  In that case, the courts basically upheld states’ rights, but also punted the ball to federal courts if a state can’t come to an agreement with a tribe. With many states re-affirming state sovereignty, a gambling compact is a more complicated issue now.

But the state has options, via the legislature and voter petitions. If there is no compact agreement, the tribes could lose as well. The legislature could theoretically expand gambling for non-tribal operations in any manner acceptable to the public and the legislature. While the tribes have leverage, so does the state.

MR. LEMIEUX GOES TO WASHINGTON; A STONE PREDICTION
Grassroots Republicans have some concerns about pending federal legislation—many expected Martinez to vote for HR 2454, alternatively known as Waxman-Markey or Cap and Tax. The bill will increase the cost of living for almost every American. Crist is considered a moderate, and it’s logical to assume LeMieux will follow that path. Healthcare reform is a high profile hot potato. LeMieux’s votes on such issues may well have an impact on Crist’s political career. 

Stone is philosophic about Crist passing over rising stars like state Rep. Jennifer Carroll (R) who is extremely popular with voters. “This is the choice the governor has made and I intend to support his choice.” Stone is a long-time supporter of Crist, but he also has a finger on the pulse of Republican Main Streeters. “I have a concern that our party remain united.”

Party unity is a challenge right now. Libertarian-leaning Republicans, grassroots Republicans and moderate Republicans tend to disagree over social issues. Does Stone agree the GOP offers a big tent for all voices?

“Politics is about inclusion,” Stone said. “You don’t win elections by throwing people out. We shouldn’t throw people out of the party for reasonable discourse.”

It’s likely the governor will call for a special session in October, hoping the legislature will approve the Seminole compact. LeMieux will head to Washington.

Stone offers a prediction on state politics. The Party lacks a viable candidate for attorney general. “I think it is entirely plausible Sen. LeMieux could go to Washington, serve with distinction and prove himself to voters, and with late filing, could run for attorney general.”

Major newspapers like The Miami Herald and The Pensacola News Journal criticized Crist's pick. The Wall Street Journal called LeMieux "Crist's mini-me."

THE RUBIO-CRIST BATTLE
Meanwhile, Crist will also by necessity focus on running for Martinez’s senate seat. Marco Rubio, the son of Cuban exiles who came to America after their country fell to communist Fidel Castro, is challenging Crist for the Republican nomination. Rubio, former speaker of the Florida House, has easily captured grassroots support. A dynamic speaker, he is also a fiscal conservative, and if there is one issue on the GOP plate that all comers want a serving of, it’d be fiscal conservatism. Grassroots conservatives want the opposite of President Barack Obama when it comes to federal spending.

Rubio pulled no punches, commenting on Crist's proposal at The Buzz. Rubio said the deal is "a backroom secret, one-sided deal with the Seminole Tribe...a worse deal than the original compact. It creates a loophole where they don’t pay anything for their Broward casino, which is their most profitable one."

Does Rubio have a chance against a branded governor popular with moderate Republicans and Democrats?

“I see Marco Rubio making ground—in a state the size of Florida, that’s a $3 million endeavor,” Stone said. “But I will support Crist if he’s the nominee, despite the fact I disagree with him on some public policy issues.” Stone also supports Crist in the primary.

A failed compact would complicate matters for Crist, and approval is not guaranteed. A headline at the Sun Sentinel on Monday read, “Legislature lukewarm on new compact?”

Florida’s governor is by necessity juggling hot button issues and his own Senate bid. Key state offices are in play. “There’s a governorship, attorney general and US Senate seat at stake,” Stone said.