Roger Stone sizes up the Crist-Rubio race; GOP base disgruntled

Veteran analyst Roger Stone writes a column about politics of the day.
In a July 29th column at The Stone Zone, political analyst Roger Stone sizes up the Crist-Rubio duel for the Republican primary. The winner will then face a Democrat vying for retiring Republican senator Mel Martinez’s seat. In his clinical post, the veteran analyst’s conclusions are spot on. I’ve interviewed Stone—there is no more interesting perspective in politics today than you get from this guy. He talks staccato style and has this incredible recall—he’s a living anthology of political history past and present.

Stone sees an Achilles heel for Florida's popular governor and he points to "the little Frenchman." 

 “Governor Charlie Crist's former Chief of Staff George LeMieux has made millions since leaving state government. Now LeMieux's business dealings are likely to become the focus of Democratic attacks on U.S. Senate candidate Charlie Crist.” Stone adds, “[T]allahassee State's Attorney Willie Meggs is getting access to the GOP party records in the House Speaker Ray Sansom investigation.”

No one knows what will come of that, but with elections looming, you can betcha’, as a well-known governor likes to say, the press will sensationalize anything that’s found, especially for a Republican candidate.

I talk to a lot of conservatives, and one conclusion I reached: GOP faithful are hot for Rubio. If you see the former speaker of the Florida House in action, you’ll see why. He is a natural born speaker, he’s a good looking guy and he speaks with such conviction he doesn’t use a teleprompter or even note cards. The GOP has not had a Marco Rubio in a long time. If he can stay clean during what is guaranteed will be a dirty battle, he could one day end up in the Oval Office. He is that sharp. And he’d be our first Cuban-American prez. Can you see the narrative here? GOP faithful already do.

The powers in the Party, however, jumped on Crist’s candidacy and endorsed him with speed akin to the velocity of money printing (and subsequently being burned figuratively) in the US government.

The endorsements some perceived as premature didn’t go over well with many Main Street GOPers. They felt Rubio deserved respect and they are mostly out of sorts with Crist. His position on climate change is static, his attempts at improving Florida’s insurance situation did not have good results. Yet he is popular and amazingly branded, therefore eminently electable. The faithful mostly seem to understand those positive attributes, but many still put their hopes on Rubio.

There’s a lot of grumbling within the faithful right now. The unifying element is economics. Most conservatives take to the platform on fiscal policy even though some of the elected have failed to practice it in Washington. Rubio is a definite fiscal conservative, a small government guy. And he’s got some excellent ideas for reducing the deficit and shrinking government.

The Rubio-Crist battle will be the most interesting Senate race in 2010, and blue chip media is already taking note. Time said, “The upcoming battle between the moderate Crist and the conservative former Florida house speaker Marco Rubio would be the most interesting GOP primary of 2010 even if moderate Republican Pennyslvania Senator Arlen Specter hadn't switched parties to avoid a beatdown from conservative Club for Growth president Pat Toomey.”

The St. Petersburg Times said Rubio polls well among GOP voters who recognize both candidates, and Crist takes a strong lead when the poll is expanded to likely primary voters. But if you compare Rubio’s new numbers with earlier polls, he’s come a long way and there’s still time for proper branding and a strong narrative. As long as he polls well, he stays in the news. That’s how media works, and it often exempts from coverage good candidates whose only fault is they aren’t polling.

Stone’s analysis, ‘Crist’s vulnerability—It’s the little Frenchman’ is worth a read. It’s like a prelude to a drama guaranteed to intrigue and engage as primary season draws near.

Roger Stone sizes up the Crist-Rubio race; GOP base disgruntled
by Kay B. Day, The US Report (Jul. 31, 2009)

Comments

[PATRICK]

AS TIME GOES ON THE VOTERS ALL AROUND FLORIDA WILL KNOW WHO MARCO RUBIO IS. MARCO HAS A HOLE YEAR . REPUBLICANS WANT SOMEONE ELESE THAN CRIST. REPUBLICANS THINK OF CRIST AS A SELLOUT LIKE AN ARLEN SPECTER! WHEN CRIST SUPPORTED OBAMA ON STAGE & ON TV RIGHT IN OUR FACES THEN AND ONLY THEN IT WAS THE BEGINING OF THE END FOR CRIST! MARCO RUBIO WILL WIN THIS THING... WATCH!!!! IT'S JUST A MATTER OF TIME & TIME MARCO HAS. WWW.MARCORUBIO.