Rubio vs. Crist vs. Meek matchup warrants close look at polls

By Kay B. Day

Gov. Charlie Crist (left) and former speaker of the Florida House Marco Rubio debated on Chris Wallace's Fox News Sunday March 28. Rubio prevailed.In the nation’s most watched US Senate race, there’s an obvious frontrunner. Former Speaker of the Florida House Marco Rubio is walloping fellow GOPer Gov. Charlie Crist and Democrat Rep. Kendrick Meek.

But he’s walloping them, a new poll said, only if Crist doesn’t switch to independent status. In that case, the Quinnipiac Poll released April 15 concluded Crist would ease past Rubio with a slim margin of 2 percent and beat Meek by 8 percent. Quinnipiac polls registered voters. I don’t know if this is self-reported or whether the respondents’ names come from actual voter registration lists.

That poll conflicts with a March 24 Florida Senate poll done by Rasmussen. Rasmussen surveys likely voters.

Rasmussen found: “Even in a three-way match-up with Crist running as an independent, Meek comes in second with 25% of the vote. Rubio leads with 45% support, while Crist earns 22%.”

A non-poll—basically an opinion—has NBC’s Chuck Todd predicting Meek would win a 3-way, reasoning that Crist as an independent candidate “would split the Republican vote.”

Adding to the intrigue was Crist’s declaration during a Fox News Sunday debate with Rubio. Crist said he would support the winner of the Aug. 24 GOP Primary, nixing the idea he’d run as an independent.

However this week Crist is dodging the issue, taking the political position he’ll “listen” to Florida voters.

I thought a lot about all this, in part because I’ve publicly supported Rubio. I didn’t go into this as a Rubio supporter. I studied his record and covered a meeting where he spoke. I came away asking myself how the national GOP powers that be could have dismissed this candidate who declared before Crist declared, giving the governor full public support. In my opinion, that’s an insult by GOP leaders in a primary race where there are viable candidates, and it's an insult to the grassroots.

Rubio, however, picked up Sen. Jim DeMint’s Senate Conservative Fund support, as well as endorsements from Rep. Mike Pence (R-Ind.) and a timely endorsement from Rep. Eric Cantor (R-Va.)

We might get miffed with our senators, but we dedicated voters tend to trust our House members. The exception there is DeMint—he garners immediate respect in all conservative quarters and certainly is headed to succeed on an even broader national level one day. I'd cast a vote for DeMint for whatever office he chose to run if I were eligible to vote for him.

Many of us wonder why Crist even targeted the Senate when he’d likely have been re-elected as governor with little trouble. It seems to me the GOP was taking a non-essential risk, but then I often don’t understand the strategy national leadership has undertaken—our 2008 presidential nominee, for example. If Crist played his cards right, he'd still have a very bright political future. I think this race represents a critical decision for him where party is concerned.

But I disagree with Todd on the split. In my opinion if Crist runs as an independent, the Democrat vote could easily split. Crist just gave the teachers and the unions in Florida a big gift by vetoing Florida Senate Bill 6, earning some likely votes from those quarters he normally might not have.

The bill had serious flaws as well as some merits,  but I agree with the veto, by the way. I’m all for educational reform, but I have yet to see any politician offer a logical means to that end and the unions will probably not agree to any reform that benefits the students. Throw in education’s biggest problem—in absentia parenting—and you’ll get an idea what I’m talking about. I say that as a product of and as a veteran parent volunteer in public schools in two states.

Another serious negative for public education is the US Dept. of Education whose mandates and interference cost teachers and principals ridiculous amounts of time. You could delete the DOE from the federal budget and education would never miss a beat.

Crist can easily appeal to Democrats upset with the status quo. But here’s the rub.

If the governor chooses to split with the GOP, I believe he will lose nearly all of the GOP vote. The Quinnipiac Poll asks about a theoretical situation. A ‘what if.’

But if Crist actually declared as an independent, he’d face a war from Meek and a war from Rubio. The grassroots would energize even more than they have now to back  Rubio, an extremely engaging, articulate candidate whose immigrant history resonates with many of us. And Crist would be caught in a distinct untruth—flip-flopping on loyalty. Most of us have had enough of that from Washington already.

Besides all that, Rubio has excellent potential for the presidency. Anyone who hears him speak, regardless of degree of conservatism, should come away impressed. And besides all that, Rubio is a definite Washington outsider, something sorely needed in Congress at the moment. Topping the list of Rubio’s strengths are his pledges to fiscal conservatism and national security.

Here’s something to mull about the Quinnipiac Poll:
“From April 8 - 13, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,250 Florida voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points. The survey includes 497 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 4.4 percentage points.”

Technically Crist’s lead in a 3-way could be a no-lead based on the error margin. Note less than half of those polled were Republicans.

My money’s on Rubio if Crist splits from the GOP. And my preference is Rubio in the US Senate once 2010 is done.